Topic: Market Trends

Today we analyze the shifting landscape of the Chinese NEV market as it enters the "late majority" phase by 2026. We find that the era of hardware inflation—characterized by excessive lidars and vanity screens—is losing its grip on pragmatic consumers who prioritize price stability and service over raw specs. By examining the contrasting trajectories of brands like Leapmotor and Zeekr, we observe that trust has become the most expensive flagship configuration in an oversaturated market. Our assessment suggests that while breakthrough technologies like solid-state batteries and L3 autonomous driving are years away, the immediate winning strategy lies in reducing multi-dimensional uncertainty for users. We emphasize that brand power now serves as a crucial filter for mainstream buyers navigating complex technical choices, where avoiding mistakes is more vital than extreme innovation.

We delve into the first completed three-year cycle of the AI wave, marked by the significant IPO milestones of Zhipu and MiniMax. By reflecting on early investment decisions with Zhang Jinjian, we examine the evolution of cognitive frameworks, shifting from pure belief to a nuanced understanding of large models and embodied AI as converging paths to AGI. We highlight the critical 'long action, short thinking' asset strategy and the rising importance of 'subjectivity' for founders in an increasingly noisy market. For the tech community, this discussion provides vital context on the three stages of embodied AI development and an optimistic outlook for the Chinese market in 2026. Today we focus on how individual agency and 'vitality' remain the core drivers of innovation as we transition into the next era of technological advancement.