Topic: Embodied AI

We delve into the first completed three-year cycle of the AI wave, marked by the significant IPO milestones of Zhipu and MiniMax. By reflecting on early investment decisions with Zhang Jinjian, we examine the evolution of cognitive frameworks, shifting from pure belief to a nuanced understanding of large models and embodied AI as converging paths to AGI. We highlight the critical 'long action, short thinking' asset strategy and the rising importance of 'subjectivity' for founders in an increasingly noisy market. For the tech community, this discussion provides vital context on the three stages of embodied AI development and an optimistic outlook for the Chinese market in 2026. Today we focus on how individual agency and 'vitality' remain the core drivers of innovation as we transition into the next era of technological advancement.

We analyzed a comprehensive year-end survey involving 95 industry experts to synthesize the defining AI trends for 2025 and 2026. The most critical technological breakthrough is the engineering of "Reasoning" capabilities, marking a transition from rapid word prediction to System 2 thinking as demonstrated by models like o1 and DeepSeek R1. Our findings highlight a significant user paradigm shift where autonomous "working" replaces simple "chatting," with Claude Code and NotebookLM emerging as flagship products that complete complex workflows. We anticipate that by 2026, AI will evolve into autonomous Agent fleets capable of self-correction and physical interaction through embodied intelligence. This transition significantly lowers reasoning costs, turning AI into ubiquitous infrastructure. For developers and users, the competitive edge is moving away from mastering AI tools toward the high-level ability to define and structure complex problems.